Impulsively sold my iPad1: now should I wait to replace it until iPad 3 comes out?

[ncb4]

I've backed myself into a corner this week. For some reason, the New Year did not spur me to make any resolutions; but it did spark an urge to sweep out the old and ring in the new. Which is my way of trying to make my impulsive decision to sell my 16GB iPad 1st gen sound more rational, or at least virtuous. It sold quickly on eBay, and for only slightly less than I paid for it last June (I bought it refurbed from Apple, so it was a good deal).

The moment I packed it in the box to ship to the new owner, however, I realized that maybe I had timed this all wrong. I always intended to upgrade to another iPad, this one with 64GB of storage. In November, Apple was selling 1st-generation refurbs of those for only $399, but at that point, I was content with what I had. But now I'm running out of storage space; hence the urge to upgrade.

But I should have checked the Apple Store before I sold my old one, because those $399 deals are long gone. And even if they come back in stock, Apple has raised the price to $499. And at that point, I may as well buy an iPad 2....

....Except yesterday I stumbled across several articles predicting the iPad 3 might be announced in March. And now I'm paralyzed by indecision. I probably wouldn't buy the iPad 3, but its release should drive down the refurb prices of the 64GB iPad 2s, so the frugal part of me thinks I should wait two months to see what happens. The geek part of me, however, is shrieking, "Two months? Two months! You can't deprive me of an iPad for two whole months." And it's true, now that I'm (temporarily) iPad-less, I do realize just how much I had come to use it.

I found a site online that tracks the price history of Apple refurbs, and looking at what happened last year, there was a huge drop over the course of seven months in the prices: as much as $250 in some cases. That's a lot of money (why, it could buy an Aeronaut or most of a Tri-Star). But on the other hand, I need to factor in the intangible cost of being without an iPad for a long time. So the question I'm pondering is what the balance is: at what point does the value to me of having an iPad in my hot little hands now cancel out any potential savings I might realize if I wait a few months to order a replacement?

I know that's a question that no one else can answer for me, but I'm curious if anyone else is facing a similar decision, and if so, what your thoughts are about it? What are you going to do?

Thanks,

~Nancy

[jeffmac]

Hmmm, impulsive, tech-depedendent, indecisive and Tom Bihn obsessed. Nancy, are we related?

OK, strangely, I am in exactly the same position. I sold an iPad1 right before Christmas because I saw the price getting worse not better and I find myself trawling the refurb site as well, although my personal struggle is "3G or no 3G?"

In my experience, rumors and rumored new product launches do not directly impact Apple's new or refurb pricing. Apple will likely adjust pricing on the iPad2 when they launch the iPad3 and March does seem fairly likely.

What does seem to impact Apple's refurb pricing is supply and demand and there are two big rumor drivers right now in the ether: CES, which just finished and MacWorld, which is week after next. Both of these will continue to swirl the rumor mill and put people like you and I in a dither as what to do. Sales will slow and Apple's inventory will rise, which should cause them to lower their prices to move through some inventory.

So, useful as the iPad was for you I would recommend that you do what I am currently doing:

Wait for at least the next two weeks and check the Apple refurb site obsessively.

If you are set on another iPad1 I think you will need to be prepared to jump on one if they show up on the site. A better approach might be to start shaming your friends that still have an iPad1 ("You know the iPad3 is about to come out don't you? Do you want to be left behind the curve? I will just take that one off of your hands because I am such a good friend") to see if you can grab one at a deal that way.

So...my advice is that we suffer together....for at least another couple of weeks.

[snowbot]

I second jeffmac's suggestion. I recommend getting your deep-pocketed tech-geek friends fixated on the idea of getting an ipad3 the day they come out.

[ncb4]

Hmmm, impulsive, tech-depedendent, indecisive and Tom Bihn obsessed. Nancy, are we related?

OK, strangely, I am in exactly the same position. I sold an iPad1 right before Christmas because I saw the price getting worse not better and I find myself trawling the refurb site as well, although my personal struggle is "3G or no 3G?"

In my experience, rumors and rumored new product launches do not directly impact Apple's new or refurb pricing. Apple will likely adjust pricing on the iPad2 when they launch the iPad3 and March does seem fairly likely.

What does seem to impact Apple's refurb pricing is supply and demand and there are two big rumor drivers right now in the ether: CES, which just finished and MacWorld, which is week after next. Both of these will continue to swirl the rumor mill and put people like you and I in a dither as what to do. Sales will slow and Apple's inventory will rise, which should cause them to lower their prices to move through some inventory.

So, useful as the iPad was for you I would recommend that you do what I am currently doing:

Wait for at least the next two weeks and check the Apple refurb site obsessively.

If you are set on another iPad1 I think you will need to be prepared to jump on one if they show up on the site. A better approach might be to start shaming your friends that still have an iPad1 ("You know the iPad3 is about to come out don't you? Do you want to be left behind the curve? I will just take that one off of your hands because I am such a good friend") to see if you can grab one at a deal that way.

So...my advice is that we suffer together....for at least another couple of weeks.

Maybe you're my long-lost brother!

Suffer is right; just this afternoon I was working on a freelance project for an educational publisher, having to switch back and forth between two documents on screen, and I kept looking to my right, where my late lamented iPad used to function as a neat little secondary display. (I use an app called AirDisplay for that.) It got to the point where I was so frustrated that I almost clicked on the checkout button at Apple for a 64GB iPad2, saying, "Damn the price!" But I kept chanting, "Patience, patience," and I managed to restrain myself. For now.

I am already obsessively checking the Apple refurb site, and I've even signed up for email notifications of price drops with a third-party website. (We'll see how well that works.) I'd steal the 32GB refurb iPad1 that my son snagged the first week in January—in retrospect, I think he may have gotten one of the last ones available, because they haven't shown up on Apple since. But fortunately for Evan, he and his iPad are safely hidden from me, 5,000 miles away. He's got the Atlantic and the Alps to protect him from his desperate mother. And that friend who got a 1st gen 64GB iPad for the amazing price of only $399—he's also safely 800 miles away from my larcenous fingers. Foiled again!

Can you hear my long, drawn-out sigh? This will teach me.

Just to make matters worse, like you, I'm also dithering about the 3g vs. WiFi conundrum. If you really want 3G, and you're willing to deal with AT&T, right now on their website they are offering a 1st-generation 64GB 3G iPad for $480, with no sales tax and free shipping. You have to buy a 30-day data plan at the same time, which brings the price up just over $500, but you can cancel that at any time without any penalty. Believe me, I've been thinking long and hard about that, since I really don't care about the cameras on the iPad 2. It's the 64GBs of storage that I covet. But I can't decide whether I'd use the 3G or not, so this is paralyzing ME even more.

Here's the link to the AT&T iPad:

Apple® iPad® with Wi-Fi + 3G 64GB Tablet - from AT&T

I am going to try and do as you suggest, jeffmac, and sit it out for two weeks. Maybe we can be each other's sponsors in PAA— iPad Addicts Anonymous—and call each other when we feel our resolve weakening. ;-)

~Nancy

[jeffmac]

Actually, if you are using AirDisplay the iPad2 will make you happier from what I have seen. I use it with my laptop but I try to put something on it that doesn't move much. My business partner uses it with the iPad2 and it looks much more responsive.

I am with you on the cameras on the 2 (meh!) but the faster processing is very appealing to me. i think I can get by with a 32Gig.

Nancy, I will happily join you as inaugural members of the iPAA!

BE STRONG! and send me the link to that refurb notification site please!

[AVService]

I never realized that I could buy "Most of a Tri-Star"?

That might open up some new possibilities for me!

Stalk Craigslist and find an iPad 1 for under $300.00 and be happy.Apple does nothing on our time.

I am an iPad dealer through another product I sell and I buy them used on Craigslist. Every one I have bought was sold by someone who never really should have gotten it in the first place and that drives them to sell them cheap.

I think the notion of buying a 2nd or 3rd version because the 1st is somehow obsolete is mostly Idiotic but it can work for us too!

Ed

[ncb4]

Actually, if you are using AirDisplay the iPad2 will make you happier from what I have seen. I use it with my laptop but I try to put something on it that doesn't move much. My business partner uses it with the iPad2 and it looks much more responsive.

I am with you on the cameras on the 2 (meh!) but the faster processing is very appealing to me. i think I can get by with a 32Gig.

Nancy, I will happily join you as inaugural members of the iPAA!

BE STRONG! and send me the link to that refurb notification site please!

Pretty cool to call ourselves the founding members of iPAA! And you've just helped me cross any iPad1s off my list: if AirDisplay works better with iPad2, then that's my answer to that question. So now I can focus on checking Apple's website nine thousand times a day, but looking solely for the 64GB iPad2. I think...I think...I've ruled out 3G, but only because when I saw that the price of a refurbed 64GB 3G iPad2 was only about $100 less than a refurbed Macbook Air (which I also have, and love), I had a sudden "get real" attack. No way I'm going to pay nearly the cost of a laptop for an iPad.

Ooh, before I forget, here's the link to that tracking website.

Refurbished MacBook, Pro, Mac @ Apple Store Used Mac Book Deals

Which is where I found the chart below about what happened with the prices of the 1st gen 64GB last year. I look at this when I want to stay strong. I'm just trying to hang on through Macworld at this point; not sure how much longer I can last after that.

Hang in there, jeffmac.

~Nancy

[ncb4]

I never realized that I could buy "Most of a Tri-Star"?

That might open up some new possibilities for me!

Stalk Craigslist and find an iPad 1 for under $300.00 and be happy.Apple does nothing on our time.

I am an iPad dealer through another product I sell and I buy them used on Craigslist. Every one I have bought was sold by someone who never really should have gotten it in the first place and that drives them to sell them cheap.

I think the notion of buying a 2nd or 3rd version because the 1st is somehow obsolete is mostly Idiotic but it can work for us too!

Ed

After what jeffmac said about AirDisplay, I'm leaning toward the iPad2. I would have happily stayed with my 1st gen iPad if I hadn't made what for me is the classic mistake of buying the cheapest version of a technical device. That may be the right decision for others, but time and time again I've learned that once I get a device (camera, laptop, phone, iPod, or iPad), I find all sorts of ways to use it—and I always end up regretting that I didn't pay more up front to get plenty of two things: RAM and storage space. I can't upgrade the RAM on an iPad, but I found myself quickly constrained by the 16GB of my original iPad. If I'd spent a little more and at least bought the 32GB model, I would probably be sitting here right now, paying no attention at all to iPad 2s or the upcoming iPad 3s. This time maybe I'll learn!

Believe it or not, I've never bought or sold anything on Craigslist. I'll have to check it out, Ed.

~Nancy

[rabergnc]

Alas, I am one of those folks y'all are waiting for - who will sell their ipad when the new one comes out - at least that is what I did with the ipad2. Not sure I will do that with ipad3 - the rumors do not seem to make it enough of a change - that said, we will see what happens in a couple of months when the ipad3 is rumored to be coming out. (There is also a rumor that ipad4 will be out in October!!)

RE: WIFI vs WIFI+3G: If your phone can act as a modem - has tethering capabilities - it can be cheaper to go that route than using the 3G service. My tethering plan (on Verizon) is cheaper (per GB and for overage) than using the 3G plan for the ipad offerred. It can be terminated at any time without penalty and it can restarted when you like - the down side is that you have to go thru the website or to a Verizon store and deal with a real person(!) to make it happen instead on just a few clicks on the ipad.

[backpack]

[QUOTE=ncb4;33146]Pretty cool to call ourselves the founding members of iPAA! And you've just helped me cross any iPad1s off my list: if AirDisplay works better with iPad2, then that's my answer to that question. So now I can focus on checking Apple's website nine thousand times a day, but looking solely for the 64GB iPad2. I think...I think...I've ruled out 3G, but only because when I saw that the price of a refurbed 64GB 3G iPad2 was only about $100 less than a refurbed Macbook Air (which I also have, and love), I had a sudden "get real" attack. No way I'm going to pay nearly the cost of a laptop for an iPad.

Ooh, before I forget, here's the link to that tracking website.

Refurbished MacBook, Pro, Mac @ Apple Store Used Mac Book Deals

Which is where I found the chart below about what happened with the prices of the 1st gen 64GB last year. I look at this when I want to stay strong. I'm just trying to hang on through Macworld at this point; not sure how much longer I can last after that.

Hang in there, jeffmac.

~Nancy

Thank you so much for that link and the graph!

I believe the price's spike has to do with people returning their useless gifts then buying the cheapest iPad they could afford with that and the cash they were given or saved. It is also possible that the Apple gift cards given last year were used at that time by people who budgeted for it.

[Lani]

My suggestion is that you wait until the iPad3. You probably won't have to wait more than 3 months. You really don't want to be buying the iPad2 and getting a product that's at the end of its initial release cycle. Just hang tight!

[ncb4]

Well, jeffmac, I failed as a charter member of the iPAA! I couldn't hold out. I got a notification from the refurb tracking site this morning that the 1st generation 64GB iPads had come back in stock, and I couldn't wait a moment longer: I ordered one! They are still out of stock of the 32GB models, which is what you're looking for. But you may be leaning towards the iPad2 or iPad3.

[Lani]

Well, you can always have TWO, I suppose!

The rumormills are starting to go into overtime, by the way. You may have had less than two months to wait:

Latest iPad 3 Rumors – Production Ramping Up, Launch Event in Early February

[ncb4]

I know, I know, Lani: but I was never going to buy the iPad3 anyway—I was just hoping that its advent would decrease the refurb prices of iPad2s. And I just got too impatient!